The person in charge of a certain photovoltaic module company said, "The current internal competition in module prices is beneficial to us, which better reflects our technological cost reduction ability!"
The rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry has not only conquered overseas markets, but also caused pain in the domestic industry chain. The aftermath of the wave of layoffs, production cuts, and plant closures, as well as the expansion of photovoltaic production, is emerging.
The operating rate is less than 60%, and the scale of layoffs is as high as 20%
During a recent institutional survey, Gaoce Co., Ltd. stated that the photovoltaic industry has experienced a shortage of production and low prices. The risk of short-term profit decline has intensified, and competition for capacity clearance is imminent. In this fierce competition, enterprises with technological, cost, and financial advantages may demonstrate stronger risk resistance, while high cost outdated production capacity will face greater operational challenges.
On December 3rd, Qin Shilong, Deputy General Manager and Secretary of the Board of Directors of TCL Central, stated at a forum that the depth of the "bleeding" in the photovoltaic industry is sufficient, but time has not yet passed; Future development opportunities still exist, but this will also be a test of time for funds.
At the same time, news of well-known foreign photovoltaic companies shutting down and laying off employees has also become a focus of market attention. Recently, there have been reports of multiple photovoltaic module factories laying off employees, including well-known leading companies in the industry. Some companies have seen layoffs of up to 15% to 20%. The pressure of internal competition in the market has caused the operating rate of the photovoltaic industry to drop to the level of 50% to 60%, compared to the previous operating rate of 70% to 80%. "From silicon wafers to modules, there has been a shortage of production in all aspects of the photovoltaic industry chain," said a person from a vertically integrated photovoltaic enterprise. Against the backdrop of such low component prices, manufacturers with low production efficiency and outdated production capacity will be unable to continue operating and gradually phased out by the market.
At the same time, the export market for photovoltaic modules has also fallen into a slump. As Christmas approaches, the installation speed of photovoltaic systems in Europe will also slow down. In addition, the European market is still in a state of destocking this year, and the large backlog of photovoltaic module products from last year is still being digested. The weak market situation has alerted module manufacturers.
60% -70% of photovoltaic enterprises may be eliminated
In recent weeks, the prices of photovoltaic modules have been continuously declining. According to survey data from OPIS, a subsidiary of Dow Jones, prices of PERC photovoltaic modules and TOPCon photovoltaic modules from China have hit new historical lows, dropping to $0.13/W and $0.14/W respectively. According to relevant data, the global photovoltaic module production capacity will exceed 1000GW in 2023, with China's photovoltaic production capacity accounting for over 80%. This year, the global module demand forecast is 525GW, and the elimination race has already begun.
2023 China made photovoltaic module price trend chart (OPIS)
In the above-mentioned component price market, some photovoltaic module sellers have stated that "we currently do not know how to predict the trend of photovoltaic module prices.". Analysis agencies predict that there is still a possibility of price decline in the later stage, accelerating product iteration and industry reshuffle. Some industry insiders suggest that 60% -70% of companies may be eliminated in two to three years. On the other hand, the land use problem of centralized photovoltaic power stations and the grid connection problem of distributed photovoltaics in China are becoming more prominent. Once the installation speed slows down, the problem of overcapacity of photovoltaic modules may be further exacerbated.
Photovoltaic reshuffle, leaving behind only real gold
The head of a module company known as "TSMC in the photovoltaic industry" said, "Our Perc module prices have now reached 0.8 yuan/w, TOPCon modules are priced at 0.85 yuan/w, and n-type 2278 size modules can reach up to 600W. The current internal competition in module prices is actually beneficial to us, which better reflects our technological cost reduction ability!"
NE-SALON believes that overcapacity in photovoltaic production will force some outdated technologies and production capacity to be eliminated, which will create more opportunities for the overall progress of the industry and have a positive impact on the development of the entire industry in the long run.
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